One in Three Britons Expect Mortgage Rates to Rise in 2025

We polled 2000 UK adults, including homeowners, mortgage holders and aspiring homeowners to find out how they expect mortgage rates to change in the next 12 months – whether they expect them to go up, stay the same or fall.

Overall there is a degree of uncertainty about mortgage rate expectations this year. Among UK adults overall, more than a third (37%) think mortgage rates will rise, 25% think they will stay the same, 16% think they will fall and 22% just don’t know.

• Homeowners are slightly less likely than UK adults overall to expect mortgage rates to rise (32% vs 37%) and are more likely to expect mortgage rates to fall (21% vs 16%).
• Among homeowners, those with a mortgage are even more likely to expect mortgage rates to fall (26% of mortgage holders vs 18% of homeowners who own outright expect a fall in rates).
• Those aspiring to own their first home are least optimistic about mortgage rates with almost half (49%) expecting mortgage rates to rise vs 37% overall.

2025 Mortgage Rate Expectations

“That more than a third of the public are bracing for further mortgage rate rises shows how fragile confidence remains. Uncertainty over the economic climate and what’s coming next does nothing for consumer confidence.” says Paula Higgins, CEO at the property advice website HomeOwners Alliance. “While the Bank of England weighs up its next move, millions are stuck in limbo, unsure whether to fix their mortgage now or hold out for a potential drop in rates.”

Managing mortgage rate uncertainty

With the base rate decision imminent, this insight offers a snapshot of public sentiment, highlighting the broader anxiety that surrounds mortgage affordability today. Our advice to homeowners is to keep their mortgage under review. Check the date you’re due to remortgage. If it’s in the next six months, start the search now, lock in the best rate and keep this under review.  

First time buyers particularly pessimistic

When it comes to first-time buyers, Paula Higgins adds, 

It’s particularly worrying that those aspiring to own their first home are least optimistic about mortgage rates with almost half (49%) expecting mortgage rates to rise vs 37% overall. All the doom and gloom around the economy is actually clouding what is an improving mortgage market. First time buyers should explore their options; check what rates are doing.

We keep our Mortgage Rate Predictions page regularly updated. Check it out!

Mortgage rate expectations by UK region

There are no significant differences regionally in terms of expectations for mortgage rates in the UK. See the table for a summary of mortgage rate expectations among the UK population overall and split by region.

Expect rates to:	Rise	Stay the same	Fall	Don’t know
Total UK adults	37%	25%	16%	22%
Scotland	30%	24%	20%	25%
Wales	41%	16%	19%	23%
North of England	40%	21%	17%	22%
Midlands	39%	28%	14%	19%
East of England	36%	25%	13%	26%
South of England	34%	29%	16%	22%
London	34%	24%	21%	21%

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