Will the Bank of England cut interest rates on 6 November?

While the Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates at 4% in September was widely expected, predictions on what’s likely to happen at the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 6 November are split.

The September decision to hold interest rates was considered a sure bet, following inflation figures for August showing inflation remained unchanged at 3.8%, nearly double the UK’s official inflation target. After the announcement, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said “we are not out of the woods yet” on inflation, so “any future cuts will need to be made gradually and carefully”.

However, speaking a few days afterwards, Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill expressed greater confidence in the UK’s path towards lower inflation, noting a change from his past assessment of the risks facing the economy.

“It’s always a question of a balance of risks,” he said when speaking at a Pictet Research Institute event. “I have been on the side of saying maybe the balance of risks are more on the inflationary side than the disinflationary side. I think, through time, and also as markets reprice, that probably is changing. Personally, I’m more comfortable now than I was six, nine, 12 months ago.”

Looking at what may happen next, financial markets are pricing the odds of a November cut at just 20%, although some economists believe a cut could be on the cards. But in contrast, some other interest rate predictions forecast that we won’t see a cut until next April – or possibly longer. Read on for more on this.

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Will the Bank of England cut interest rates on 6 November?

Predictions of whether the Bank of England will cut interest rates on 6 November vary. Some analysts predict the Bank of England will cut interest rates when its Monetary Policy Committee next meets in November. However, financial markets are pricing a November cut at just 20% probability.

Interest rates predictions

It’s fair to say that interest rates predictions do vary, with some expecting a further cut this year while others believe interest rates could stay the same for the following year. Here’s a selection of interest rates forecasts:

• Capital Economics forecasts the Bank of England won’t cut interest rates again this year. However, they still think rates will be reduced to 3% next year ‘instead of to 3.50% as investors expect.’
• Investec economist Philip Shaw’s interest rate forecast is that he’s expecting rates to be held at 4% until the end of the year, with the next cut in February 2026.
• HSBC’s interest rates prediction is that the base rate will not be cut again until April 2026.
• Pantheon Macroeconomics predicts interest rates will remain at 4% for the next year due to the Bank of England’s difficulty in bringing down inflation to its 2% target.
• ING says it narrowly favours another rate cut in November, ‘though it wouldn’t take much to push the next move back into 2026’
• KPMG said ‘we expect a small majority on the MPC to vote for a cut in November, leaving interest rates at 3.75% by the end of 2025.
• While the majority of economists polled by Reuters still predict the BoE will cut interest rates again in November or December.

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Latest Bank of England base rate news

The Bank of England held interest rates in September at 4%. This decision was widely expected. The 9 member MPC voted 7-2 in favour of holding the base rate, with two members voting for a quarter point cut.

At the previous Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 7 August, the bank cut interest rates from 4.25% to 4%, the fifth interest rates cut in a year. The decision was narrowly passed by a 5–4 split vote, with one member initially pushing for a larger 0.5 percentage‑point reduction. The result was a much closer call than predicted.

The move follows cuts in May 2025, February 2025, November 2024 and August 2024, when the base rate was first cut from 5.25%.

What are interest rates and why do they change?

• The Bank of England’s base rate acts as a benchmark for the cost of borrowing money. As a general rule, when interest rates increase, so does the cost of borrowing on mortgages and other types of borrowing.
• One major reason why the Bank moves rates up and down is to help control inflation. When inflation is high, the bank may increase interest rates to try to bring it down by encouraging people to spend less and reduce demand. And once inflation is at or near its target, the Bank may hold or cut interest rates.
• However, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will assess a range of factors when deciding whether to cut interest rates including job and wages data and external factors that can impact the economy.

What’s happening with inflation?

Official government figures released in September 2025 show that CPI inflation in August remained unchanged at 3.8%. This is the same as the figure for July and the highest level since January 2024.

CPIH, which includes owner‑occupiers’ housing costs, stood at 4.1%, while RPI inflation came in at 4.6%, underscoring persistent pressures across housing and consumer prices. All of this leaves inflation running at almost double the Bank of England’s 2% target.

When is the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee’s next meeting?

The next Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting is on 6 November 2025. Its subsequent meetings are on 18 December 2025 and 5 February 2026. The Bank of England publishes a calendar of future committee meeting dates here.

How do interest rates affect mortgages, loans and savings rates

How changes in interest rates affect your mortgage

Falling interest rates usually means mortgage rates fall too. Stay up to date with our guide to Mortgage rate predictions.

However, how changes in interest rates affect your mortgage depend on your circumstances:

1. You’re taking out a new mortgage: If you’re shopping around for a new mortgage or want to remortgage, the mortgage rates available should improve if interest rates fall, although this isn’t guaranteed. For example, in September 2025, fixed mortgage rates are edging up despite a recent interest rates cut. So make sure you shop around. For the cheapest mortgage rates read our guide to the Best mortgage rates.
2. If you’re on a fixed rate mortgage the amount you’ll pay on your monthly mortgage payments will stay the same during your initial term – usually 2 or 5 years. So your mortgage payments won’t change if interest rates go up or down.
3. You have a tracker mortgages If you’re one of the estimated 600,000 households on a tracker mortgage deal and interest rates are cut, your mortgage payments will fall as the rate you pay on your mortgage rises and falls in line with the Bank of England base rate.
4. If you’re on a discounted variable rate you’ll pay a rate that’s lower than the lender’s Standard Variable Rate. If your lender decides to pass on the cut in interest rates, your mortgage payments will fall. But it won’t necessarily pass on all or any of the cut.
5. You’re on your lender’s Standard variable rate (SVR) According to UK Finance, there are around 1.1 million households on their lender’s standard variable rate. If this includes you, if your lender decides to reduce its SVR if interest rates fall, the amount you’ll pay will fall. But the lender may not pass on all or any of an interest rate cut. Lenders’ SVRs can be extremely expensive, so check your deal now to see if you can save by remortgaging.

Need to remortgage? Don’t sit around waiting for rates to improve. Our mortgage partners at L&C can find and lock-in the best rate now and keep it under review – for free.

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Interest rate changes impact on credit cards and loans

Other types of borrowing are affected in a similar way. If interest rates go up, borrowing of any type generally gets more expensive, while when interest rates are cut, borrowing generally gets cheaper. However, this is in general terms as the amount you’ll pay on things like credit cards and loans will depends on a number of factors including your credit history.

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