Will the Bank of England cut interest rates on 6 November?

The Bank of England is widely predicted to hold interest rates at 4% at the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 6 November.

The move would follow the Bank of England’s decision in September to hold interest rates, which was widely expected following figures for August showing inflation remained unchanged at 3.8%, almost double the Bank’s 2% target.

After the September announcement on interest rates, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said “we are not out of the woods yet” on inflation, so “any future cuts will need to be made gradually and carefully”.

On 8 October, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said that central bankers should adopt what he described as a “conservative” approach to setting interest rates, including responding firmly if price growth gets out of hand.

Pill, who voted against the BoE’s most recent rate cut to 4% in August, said his speech at the University of Birmingham was not intended to be a comment on the current stance of monetary policy or the economic outlook, Reuters reports.

But he said central bankers should make clear their commitment to prioritising price stability above wider goals for growth and employment over which they could not exert much long-term influence.

“We should be cautious in assigning monetary policy responsibility for real economic outcomes because, over the longer term at least, all monetary policy can do is determine the nominal dynamics of the economy,” he said.

The following day, Bank of England rate setter Catherine Mann warned that interest rates in the UK must remain elevated for an extended period, due to inflation expectations remaining stubbornly high and because of the damage recent price hikes have done to consumer sentiment.

“It is perhaps counterintuitive that in order to create an environment conducive to growth, monetary policy must remain restrictive for longer,” Mann told a Resolution Foundation think-tank event. “But this is necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to our 2% target in the medium term.”

Looking at what may happen next, financial markets are pricing the odds of a November cut at just 20%, although some economists believe a cut could be on the cards.

But in contrast, some other interest rate predictions forecast that we won’t see a cut until next April – or possibly longer. Read on for more on this.

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Will the Bank of England cut interest rates on 6 November?

Predictions vary on whether the Bank of England will cut interest rates on 6 November. Some analysts predict the Bank of England will cut interest rates when its Monetary Policy Committee next meets in November. However, financial markets are pricing a November cut at just 20% probability.

Interest rate predictions

It’s fair to say that interest rate predictions do vary, with some expecting a further cut this year while others believe interest rates could stay the same for the following year. Here’s a selection of interest rates forecasts:

• Capital Economics forecasts the Bank of England won’t cut interest rates again this year. However, they still think rates will be reduced to 3% next year ‘instead of to 3.50% as investors expect.’
• Investec economist Philip Shaw’s interest rate forecast is that he’s expecting rates to be held at 4% until the end of the year, with the next cut in February 2026.
• HSBC’s interest rate prediction is that the base rate will not be cut again until April 2026.
• Pantheon Macroeconomics predicts interest rates will remain at 4% for the next year due to the Bank of England’s difficulty in bringing down inflation to its 2% target.
• ING has revised its forecast for November, saying: “We no longer expect another Bank of England rate cut this year, though lower inflation and higher taxes should unlock further easing in 2026.”
• KPMG said ‘we expect a small majority on the MPC to vote for a cut in November, leaving interest rates at 3.75% by the end of 2025.
• While the majority of economists polled by Reuters still predict the BoE will cut interest rates again in November or December.

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Latest Bank of England base rate news

The Bank of England held interest rates in September at 4%. This decision was widely expected. The 9 member MPC voted 7-2 in favour of holding the base rate, with two members voting for a quarter point cut.

At the previous Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 7 August, the bank cut interest rates from 4.25% to 4%, the fifth interest rates cut in a year. The decision was narrowly passed by a 5–4 split vote, with one member initially pushing for a larger 0.5 percentage‑point reduction. The result was a much closer call than predicted.

The move follows cuts in May 2025, February 2025, November 2024 and August 2024, when the base rate was first cut from 5.25%.

What are interest rates and why do they change?

• The Bank of England’s base rate acts as a benchmark for the cost of borrowing money. As a general rule, when interest rates increase, so does the cost of borrowing on mortgages and other types of borrowing.
• One major reason why the Bank moves rates up and down is to help control inflation. When inflation is high, the bank may increase interest rates to try to bring it down by encouraging people to spend less and reduce demand. And once inflation is at or near its target, the Bank may hold or cut interest rates.
• However, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will assess a range of factors when deciding whether to cut interest rates including job and wages data and external factors that can impact the economy.

What’s happening with inflation?

Official government figures released in September 2025 show that CPI inflation in August remained unchanged at 3.8%. This is the same as the figure for July and the highest level since January 2024.

CPIH, which includes owner‑occupiers’ housing costs, stood at 4.1%, while RPI inflation came in at 4.6%, underscoring persistent pressures across housing and consumer prices. All of this leaves inflation running at almost double the Bank of England’s 2% target.

When is the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee’s next meeting?

The next Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting is on 6 November 2025. Its subsequent meetings are on 18 December 2025 and 5 February 2026. The Bank of England publishes a calendar of future committee meeting dates here.

How do interest rates affect mortgages, loans and savings rates

How changes in interest rates affect your mortgage

Falling interest rates usually means mortgage rates fall too. Stay up to date with our guide to Mortgage rate predictions.

However, how changes in interest rates affect your mortgage depend on your circumstances:

1. You’re taking out a new mortgage: If you’re shopping around for a new mortgage or want to remortgage, the mortgage rates available should improve if interest rates fall, although this isn’t guaranteed. For example, in October 2025, fixed mortgage rates are edging up despite a recent interest rates cut. So make sure you shop around. For the cheapest mortgage rates read our guide to the Best mortgage rates.
2. If you’re on a fixed rate mortgage the amount you’ll pay on your monthly mortgage payments will stay the same during your initial term – usually 2 or 5 years. So your mortgage payments won’t change if interest rates go up or down.
3. You have a tracker mortgages If you’re one of the estimated 600,000 households on a tracker mortgage deal and interest rates are cut, your mortgage payments will fall as the rate you pay on your mortgage rises and falls in line with the Bank of England base rate.
4. If you’re on a discounted variable rate you’ll pay a rate that’s lower than the lender’s Standard Variable Rate. If your lender decides to pass on the cut in interest rates, your mortgage payments will fall. But it won’t necessarily pass on all or any of the cut.
5. You’re on your lender’s Standard variable rate (SVR) According to UK Finance, there are around 1.1 million households on their lender’s standard variable rate. If this includes you, if your lender decides to reduce its SVR if interest rates fall, the amount you’ll pay will fall. But the lender may not pass on all or any of an interest rate cut. Lenders’ SVRs can be extremely expensive, so check your deal now to see if you can save by remortgaging.

Need to remortgage? Don’t sit around waiting for rates to improve. Our mortgage partners at L&C can find and lock-in the best rate now and keep it under review – for free.

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Interest rate changes impact on credit cards and loans

Other types of borrowing are affected in a similar way. If interest rates go up, borrowing of any type generally gets more expensive, while when interest rates are cut, borrowing generally gets cheaper. However, this is in general terms as the amount you’ll pay on things like credit cards and loans will depends on a number of factors including your credit history.

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