Will the Bank of England cut interest rates on 30 April 2026? Latest interest rate predictions explained

Will the Bank of England cut interest rates on 30 April?

An interest rate cut on 30 April is considered unlikely. The most likely outcome is a hold according to markets and the majority of economists surveyed by Reuters.

Around 90% of respondents, 45 of 50, expect ​the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on April 30, although 5 expect a 25-basis-point hike.

However, interest rate predictions vary – read on for more details. Also, due to the economic turmoil caused by the conflict in the Middle East, predictions on what may happen next are shifting fast.

Why did the Bank of England hold interest rates on 19 March 2026?

• The Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates on 19 March was widely expected, as the central bank adopts a wait-and-see approach to the Middle East conflict, which has sent energy prices soaring and fuelled inflation fears, which experts are dubbing ‘Trumpflation’.
• The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to hold rates was unanimous. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said: “Holding Bank Rate at this meeting is appropriate. I will be monitoring developments extremely closely and stand ready to act as necessary to ensure that inflation remains on track to meet the 2% target in the medium term.”
• In an interview with Andrew Marr on LBC, Mr Bailey called on Donald Trump to resolve the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz as quickly as possible.

He said: “The best thing we can do actually for the world economy, for the UK economy and people in the world, is to sort out the problem in terms of reopening the energy supply lines, because that is in the best interest of people in the world.”

• In a stark warning, the governor said things are likely to get worse if war in the Middle East continues.

“The longer it goes on, I’m afraid to say the effect will be larger,” he said. “So I think that’s why it’s imperative that the government is doing everything that can be done to alleviate this effect. That’s the critical thing.”

• Speaking in the week after the interest rates decision, Bank of ​England policymaker Megan Greene said she had not been close to voting to raise borrowing ‌costs. “I wasn’t tempted to hike,” she said during a discussion event organised by U.S. investment ​bank Jefferies.
• However, there is a growing divide in opinion of what the Bank should do next. Rate-setter Alan Taylor has argued that the central bank must maintain a high bar for increasing borrowing costs despite the significant spike triggered by the conflict in the Middle East. He suggested that holding policy steady remains the preferable course of action until the full economic impact of the Middle East conflict becomes clearer.
• While Chief Economist Huw Pill has argued that the “fog of uncertainty” surrounding the war should not serve as an excuse for policy inaction, suggesting that the Bank must be proactive to ensure inflation does not become a permanent fixture of the UK economy.
• Following the Bank’s latest interest rates decision and comments, traders were predicting there could be two hikes before the end of the year, taking rates to 4.25%.
• “Rate hikes are now a real risk for the economy,” said Deutsche Bank’s UK chief economist Sanjay Raja. “Should energy prices stick at current levels, the MPC could be forced into pushing rates higher to curb inflation.”
• While Gordon Shannon, a fund manager at TwentyFour Asset Management, said: “The market wanted to hear a lot more reassurance on looking through this as a transitory shock. Whereas the warnings on inflation make hikes seem much more real.”
• Before the conflict in Iran, lower interest rates had been seen as a near-certainty, with experts largely only divided between whether the next cut would come in March or April.
• Chancellor Rachel Reeves has warned the conflict in Iran is “likely to put upward pressure on inflation” over the coming months.

Economists’ interest rate predictions

Interest rate predictions are notoriously difficult at the best of times, but the complexity of the current situation in the Middle East makes it even harder.

On the one hand, some experts predict interest rates may be cut, others expect rates to be held at 3.75%, while some forecast rises.

Forecasts suggesting interest rates could rise:

• JP Morgan economist Allan Monks predicts that interest rates will be increased at least twice this year, and that rates would be left at 4.25% by July. “If the Bank is to hike, we think it would be more natural to do so in April which is a forecast meeting,” he said. “If the MPC’s inclination is to hike, and its revised inflation profile is starting to be validated by then, it’s not clear why it should wait any further.” 
• National Institute of Economic and Social Research predicts that if the current rise in energy costs were to last for a year, interest rates could climb to 4.5%. The think tank modelled the impact of oil and gas prices increasing by 30% and 50% respectively over one year. This would stoke inflation in 2026 and into 2027 and propel the base rate to 4.5%, the think tank said. This is based on rates staying at 3.75% rather than falling as expected this year.
• Ben Zaranko, a director at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said an interest rate rise above 4% from its current rate of 3.75% could not be ruled out, given markets had all but dismissed the possibility of a cut this month, City AM reports. 

Forecasts suggesting interest rates may stay the same

• Oxford Economics believes that the Bank of England will hold interest rates at their current level for the rest of 2026 and “well into 2027”.
• Sylwia Hubar, a UK economist at banking group Natixis, said: “Significant risks persist, particularly from the Middle East conflict. Should this conflict continue, potentially fuelling inflation while adversely affecting economic growth, the Bank of England may ultimately keep the Bank Rate unchanged this year.”
• Dutch bank Rabobank meanwhile said it did not forecast any further interest rate cuts this year as higher oil prices would “feed through quickly” in UK inflation. 
• Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said: “There are plausible scenarios in which the Middle East conflict prompts the Bank of England to delay interest rate cuts, cancel interest rate cuts or hike interest rates. As delay seems the most likely at the moment.”
• A narrow majority of economists polled by Reuters predict the Bank of England will hold interest rates at 3.75% this year. Over 65% expect rates to remain at 3.75% through the end of September with only 12% expecting rates to move higher. A narrow majority sees no change through ‌the end ⁠of the year.
• Gabriella Willis, UK economist at Santander CIB said: “We do think the risk ​of hikes has increased and will continue to rise the longer the Middle East conflict persists. However, our baseline scenario still sees the Bank remaining on hold and sees value in it waiting to assess the scale and persistence of second-round inflation effects.”
• Goldman Sachs and Citi have changed from predicting ​three rate reductions ⁠to none.

Forecasts suggesting interest rates may go down:

• ING’s James Smith says: “UK inflation could peak at 3.5% this year if energy prices stay around current levels into the second quarter. We now expect the next Bank of England cut in April, though March is still a distinct possibility if Middle Eastern tensions rapidly de-escalate. With the jobs market still under pressure, further easing is still more likely than not.”
• Former chief economist of the Bank of England Andy Haldane said: “There’s no immediate cause for the Bank of England to be slamming on the brakes with higher interest rates,” he told ITV News. “I think were energy prices to take a further leg north, which is not out of the question, that would be a game changer for the likely path of interest rates. But for now, growth in the economy calls for lower interest rates, not higher ones.”

However, what happens with interest rates in 2026 will depend on numerous factors. You can keep up to date by bookmarking our guide to best mortgage rates in the UK or signing up to our weekly newsletter.

Need to remortgage? Our mortgage partners at L&C can find and lock in the best rate now and keep it under review – for free.

When did the Bank of England last cut interest rates?

• The Bank of England last cut UK interest rates in December 2025 to their lowest level in almost three years, marking the sixth interest rate cut since rates peaked in 2024, in an attempt to stimulate the economy.
• In light of the weakening jobs market and falling inflation, the central bank lowered interest rates from 4% to 3.75%, in a move that was widely expected.
• The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 to lower rates by a quarter point, with four members voting to hold interest rates at 4%, pointing to continued concerns about inflation.
• The cut came in a week that saw the UK unemployment rate hit its highest in almost five years, while inflation figures for November fell lower than expected to 3.2%.
• At its previous meeting on 6 November 2025, the MPC held interest rates at 4%. That decision was also a narrow one, with the vote split 5-4 in favour of a hold, rather than cutting interest rates to 3.75%.
• Prior to December, the most recent interest rate cut was on 7 August 2025, when the Bank cut interest rates from 4.25% to 4%, which was then the fifth interest rate cut in a year. The decision was narrowly passed by a 5–4 split vote, with one member initially pushing for a larger 0.5 percentage‑point reduction. The result was a much closer call than predicted.

• That move followed cuts in May 2025, February 2025, November 2024 and August 2024, when the base rate was first cut from 5.25%.

When will UK mortgage rates come down?

Experts previously expected mortgage rates to fall further in 2026. However, the outlook has become more uncertain following the conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed up energy prices and could delay or limit future interest rate cuts, or even result in interest rates rising.

This unpredictable outlook comes as little surprise to the UK public. In our 2026 research, we found that around a quarter of Brits expect rates to rise (23%) and a similar proportion think they will fall (25%), while 28% expect them to stay the same and 24% are unsure.

But there are many factors at play, which makes an accurate mortgage rate forecast difficult to make. Read more in our guide on Mortgage rate predictions.

What are interest rates and why do they change?

• The Bank of England’s base rate acts as a benchmark for the cost of borrowing money. As a general rule, when interest rates increase, so does the cost of borrowing on mortgages and other types of borrowing.
• One major reason why the Bank moves rates up and down is to help control inflation. When inflation is high, the Bank may increase interest rates to try to bring it down by encouraging people to spend less and reduce demand. And once inflation is at or near its target, the Bank may hold or cut interest rates.
• However, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will assess a range of factors when deciding whether to cut interest rates including job and wages data and external factors that can impact the economy.

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What’s happening with the UK inflation rate?

• The latest official data, released in March 2026, showed the UK inflation rate (measured by CPI) remained at 3% in February. This was in line with what had been forecast. However, the figures were collected before the start of the US-Israel war with Iran, which is expected to speed up the pace of price rises.
• CPIH, which includes owner‑occupiers’ housing costs, remained at 3.2%, while RPI inflation came in at 3.6%.
• In the minutes published alongside its 19 March decision, the Bank said inflation had been on track to fall from 3% towards the 2% target, but was now expected to rise to 3.5%.
• The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development expects the headline rate of inflation in the UK to rise to 4% this year, the second-highest in the G7 after the United States – highlighting how exposed the UK is to rising energy prices.
• It also believes the UK faces the biggest hit to growth from the conflict among the G20 advanced economies. It now forecasts the UK economy will expand by just 0.7% in 2026 – down from a previous projection of 1.2% – the largest downgrade in its updated outlook, released this morning.

When is the Bank of England’s next Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

The next Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting is on 30 April 2026. Its subsequent meetings are on 18 June 2026 and 30 July 2026. The Bank of England publishes a calendar of future committee meeting dates here.

What does ‘terminal rate’ mean?

The terminal rate for the Bank of England refers to the peak or final level of the Bank Rate in a specific interest rate cycle, reflecting the highest (or lowest, in a cutting cycle) point the central bank brings rates to before holding or reversing.

How do interest rates affect mortgages, loans and savings rates?

How changes in interest rates affect your mortgage

Falling interest rates usually means mortgage rates fall too. Stay up to date with our guide to Mortgage rate predictions.

However, how changes in interest rates affect your mortgage depends on your circumstances:

1. You’re taking out a new mortgage: If you’re shopping around for a new mortgage or want to remortgage, the mortgage rates available should improve if interest rates fall, although this isn’t guaranteed. So make sure you shop around. For the cheapest mortgage rates read our guide to the Best mortgage rates.
2. If you’re on a fixed rate mortgage the amount you’ll pay on your monthly mortgage payments will stay the same during your initial term – usually 2 or 5 years. So your mortgage payments won’t change if the Bank of England base rate goes up or down.
3. You have a tracker mortgage: If you’re one of the estimated 600,000 households on a tracker mortgage deal and interest rates are cut, your mortgage payments will fall as the rate you pay on your mortgage rises and falls in line with the Bank of England base rate.
4. If you’re on a discounted variable rate, you’ll pay a rate that’s lower than the lender’s Standard Variable Rate. If your lender decides to pass on the cut in interest rates, your mortgage payments will fall. But it won’t necessarily pass on all or any of the cut.
5. You’re on your lender’s Standard variable rate (SVR): According to UK Finance, there are around 1.1 million households on their lender’s standard variable rate. If this includes you and your lender decides to reduce its SVR if interest rates fall, the amount you’ll pay will fall. But the lender may not pass on all or any of an interest rate cut. Lenders’ SVRs can be extremely expensive, so check your deal now to see if you can save by remortgaging.

Need to remortgage? Don’t sit around waiting for rates to improve. Our mortgage partners at L&C can find and lock in the best rate now and keep it under review – for free.

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Interest rate changes’ impact on credit cards and loans

Other types of borrowing are affected in a similar way. If interest rates go up, borrowing of any type generally gets more expensive, while when interest rates are cut, borrowing generally gets cheaper. However, this is in general terms as the amount you’ll pay on things like credit cards and loans will depend on a number of factors including your credit history.

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