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Post updated: June 17th, 2026
KEY INFORMATION
While there isn’t a set definition of a house price crash, it generally means a sudden and significant drop in house prices in a particular market or region. Many experts would describe a fall of 15%-20% or more over a relatively short period as a crash.
Most house price forecasts do not predict a nationwide UK housing market crash in 2026. Instead, analysts expect house prices to remain broadly stable or record modest growth over the year.
However, that doesn’t mean every part of the market will perform the same way. Some areas, particularly parts of London and many flats – especially new build flats – have already experienced significant price falls – read on for more on this.
Many people hear the phrase “house price crash” and immediately think of the 2008 financial crisis. While there are similarities in that affordability pressures are affecting the housing market, there are also important differences between today’s market and the conditions that led to the 2008 crash.
| 2008 financial crisis | Housing market in 2026 |
| Global banking crisis | Affordability pressures and economic uncertainty |
| Mortgage lending was less tightly regulated | Borrowers face stricter affordability checks |
| High-risk lending and self-certification mortgages were more common | Lending standards are much tighter |
| Mortgage availability reduced sharply | Mortgage products remain widely available |
| Significant nationwide house price falls | Most forecasts expect modest UK house price growth. Price falls are concentrated in certain areas and property types. |
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The London flat market has been hit by falling prices. The average price of a flat in London has fallen by more than 7% since the start of 2023, according to This is Money. However, some areas have seen much sharper falls in that period:
Plus, there’s an added risk for people who have bought a flat in the capital as a new build. Analysis by estate agent Hamptons showed that in 2025, roughly two in every five owners who had bought a new build flat in the past 20 years sold for a loss.
The hardest hit area was Hammersmith and Fulham, two-thirds of all flat owners who previously bought new properties sold at a loss last year, according to analysis of Land Registry data by Hamptons.
Updated figures released in March 2026 show that London flat prices have slumped even further with the average flat price falling £19,000 from £450,000 to £431,000 in the year to January 2026.
Looking back to 2015, buying property in London had seemed like a sound investment, with Land Registry figures showing the average London home rose by 83% from £263,000 to £482,000 between 2009 and 2015.
But since then, house prices in many parts of the capital have barely moved, and some markets now appear to be experiencing a house price crash.
As a result, many flat owners who bought in London over the past decade now expect to sell at a loss, while many house owners may not achieve much more than they paid for their home, even if they bought 10 years ago.
David Fell, lead analyst at Hamptons, says that when factoring in inflation, London flat owners are facing losses of up to 30% in real terms.
He said: “Over recent years, London flat values have mostly flatlined at best. While many owners have struggled to get back what they paid for their flat in cash terms, after taking into account inflation, real-terms losses can run at 25-30% over the past five years alone.”
“This re-assessment of value has fundamentally been driven by increases in service charges, but higher interest rates, coupled with the ending of Help to Buy, have also played a role in pushing down prices.”
UK house prices may be affected by the conflict in the Middle East, experts say. Rising oil prices risk higher inflation in the UK, which has made the interest rate cuts experts predicted in 2026 far less certain.
Swap rates, which are a strong indicator of lenders’ funding costs, rose rapidly, with mortgage lenders across the board increasing fixed rate deals in March 2026.
Mortgage rates have fallen since, however fixed rates remain much higher than before the conflict started.
Analysis by Moneyfacts suggests that for a typical £250,000, 25-year mortgage, that would translate to an increase in monthly repayments of nearly £300 from £1,445.50 before the war to £1,727 – an annual increase of £3,380.
When mortgage rates are higher and people can afford to borrow less, this may have a knock on impact on UK house prices.
Find out how much you can borrow and how much it will cost by getting expert advice. Get fee-free mortgage advice from the award-winning expert advisers at Mortgage Advice Bureau.
Get fee-free mortgage advice from the award-winning expert advisers at Mortgage Advice Bureau.
Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.
Please note some branches of Mortgage Advice Bureau may charge a fee for mortgage advice if you go direct. The fee is up to 1% but a typical fee is 0.3% of the amount borrowed. So make sure you use this site, this form or phone number for fee-free advice.
The issue of flats being sold for less than they were bought for is not confined to London, it’s affecting a large proportion of flat owners across the UK, data shows.
This is particularly the case for people who bought their flat as a new build, in which case they are now six times more likely to sell at a loss than those who own comparable houses, figures reported in ThisisMoney show.
Almost four in 10 new build flat sellers in England and Wales got less than they paid in 2025, according to Hamptons’ analysis of Land Registry data, which excluded those who had owned their flat for more than 20 years.
This figure increases to almost two thirds of new build flat sellers in the North East and 44% of new build flat sellers in Yorkshire and the Humber. In London, just over 40% sold at a loss.
In contrast, the figures show just 6.3% of those selling ex-new build houses across England and Wales sold at a loss in 2025.
| Region | Flats sold for loss in 2025 | Houses sold for loss in 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| London | 40.9% | 4.8% |
| South East | 35.7% | 5.5% |
| South West | 25.7% | 5.9% |
| Eastern | 34% | 7.5% |
| East Midlands | 35.2% | 7% |
| West Midlands | 41.1% | 5.8% |
| North East | 63.6% | 8.9% |
| North West | 41.6% | 5.7% |
| Yorkshire & the Humber | 44.5% | 6.5% |
| Wales | 23.3% | 2.8% |
| England & Wales | 38% | 6.3% |
Among older homes, almost one fifth sold at a loss in 2025, compared to 5.1% of houses, the research showed, with buyers in the North East most likely to sell at a loss at 26%.
| Region | Flats sold for loss in 2025 | Houses sold for loss in 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| London | 18.9% | 3.7% |
| South East | 21.1% | 4.1% |
| South West | 17.7% | 5.4% |
| Eastern | 19.2% | 4.9% |
| East Midlands | 22.9% | 4.9% |
| West Midlands | 19.8% | 4.2% |
| North East | 26.4% | 11.3% |
| North West | 18.5% | 4.7% |
| Yorkshire & the Humber | 20.1% | 5.7% |
| Wales | 17.3% | 5.1% |
| England & Wales | 19.6% | 5.1% |
The issue of price falls isn’t due to owners moving every couple of years, before the property has the chance to rise in value. Hamptons reported that the average flat seller who made a loss had owned their home for almost nine years, compared to 12.5 years for someone who didn’t.
Recent data released by Nationwide Building Society suggests that homeowners strongly prefer houses over flats.
There are a number of reasons why buyers may prefer houses to leasehold flats including:
If you’re selling a leasehold flat, this may be uncomfortable reading but being aware of the issues means you can seek to fix any problems that may be putting off would-be buyers. Read more information in our guide Selling a leasehold property.
Also, if you’re selling a flat with a lease of 90 years or under, it’s a good idea to get a quote for extending the lease so that you have that information up front. Otherwise, you may run the risk of buyers being put off by the uncertainty of not knowing all the options and the potential costs.
Get expert advice on extending your lease, buying your freehold or applying for the right to manage.
“This report captures the north–south story well. The point isn’t that one part of England is ‘winning’ – it’s that markets move to different rhythms,” says Kevin Shaw at property service group LRG. Many northern markets haven’t been on the same roller coaster as parts of the south. Property prices often rise in a steadier way in the good years, so they tend to fall less when sentiment turns. The temperature is generally more consistent.
“By contrast, the south can overheat – and it can also catch a cold. Higher values can mean greater sensitivity to mortgage rates, affordability and confidence. That can translate into a longer adjustment period, even while demand for the right homes remains resilient.”
Paula Higgins, CEO of the HomeOwners Alliance, says:
“If people hear the phrase house price crash being bandied around it can understandably cause anxiety. For many, a house price crash means something like the 2008 global financial crisis, when UK house prices fell by around 20% between 2007 and 2009. But that isn’t what’s happening today.
“There isn’t a set definition of a house price crash but generally speaking, it means a sudden and significant drop in house prices in a particular market or region.
“According to current data, some may argue that certain markets and parts of London are undergoing a house price crash. But it’s important to understand the distinction between a house price crash that is relatively localised vs the 2008 house price crash.
“Although, that will be little comfort for people trying to sell property, especially flats, in desirable parts of London.”
Get fee-free mortgage advice from the award-winning expert advisers at Mortgage Advice Bureau.
Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.
Please note some branches of Mortgage Advice Bureau may charge a fee for mortgage advice if you go direct. The fee is up to 1% but a typical fee is 0.3% of the amount borrowed. So make sure you use this site, this form or phone number for fee-free advice.
Trying to time the housing market is difficult. While some areas and property types may see prices fall, others may continue to grow or remain stable.
The right time to buy depends on your personal circumstances, how long you plan to stay in the property and whether you can comfortably afford the repayments.
Before delaying your purchase, it’s a good idea to understand what you could realistically afford and whether waiting would make a meaningful difference to your budget. Get FEE-FREE mortgage advice from the Mortgage Advice Bureau.
If you’re considering buying a home, understanding your budget is a good place to start. An affordability calculator can help you estimate how much you may be able to borrow and the price range you could realistically consider.
But to get advice tailored to your circumstances, it’s a good idea to chat it through with a mortgage broker. Get fee-free mortgage advice from the award-winning expert advisers at Mortgage Advice Bureau.
No. While some areas and property types have experienced significant price falls, particularly flats in parts of London, there is currently no evidence of a nationwide housing market crash.
Most forecasts suggest modest house price growth across the UK, although local markets may continue to perform very differently.
A housing market crash is usually triggered by a major economic shock such as rising unemployment, a financial crisis or a sudden collapse in buyer demand. While there are pressures affecting the housing market, most experts do not currently expect a crash on the scale seen during the 2008 financial crisis.
Nobody can predict house prices with certainty. However, most forecasts currently expect prices to remain relatively stable or see modest growth, although some regions and property types may experience falls.
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