Autumn Budget predictions 2026 & what they mean for homeowners

Why could taxes rise in the Autumn Budget 2026?

The Chancellor is under pressure to balance the books, with higher borrowing costs and inflation reducing the amount of headroom available against the Government’s fiscal rules.

The Government has pledged not to increase the main rates of income tax, National Insurance or VAT. This has fuelled speculation that the Chancellor could look to other taxes to raise money, including taxes on property and wealth.

While Healey has not confirmed that taxes will rise, he has not ruled out making changes in the Autumn Budget on 28 October.

Could inheritance tax be reformed to pay for social care?

• Prime Minister Andy Burnham has promised to reform social care in England but the government has not yet decided how it would be paid for or how much individuals would contribute towards their care.
• He has previously proposed replacing inheritance tax with a care levy to fund a National Care Service. As health secretary under Gordon Brown, he backed replacing traditional inheritance tax – under which a couple can leave an estate worth up to £1 million before any inheritance tax is due, although the amount you can pass on depends on the size of your estate, whether it includes your house and who you leave it to, with a 10% levy on all estates passed on after death.
• The proposal was also intended to reduce the risk of people having to sell their homes to pay for care.
• Speculation that this may be on the cards mounted after both the prime minister and a senior cabinet minister failed to rule it out as a way to pay for the creation of a new National Care Service that Andy Burnham said would cost up to £18.7bn a year.
• However, the government has since said it has “no plans” for a 10% “death tax” on all estates to fund social care reforms.

Sign up to our newsletter

to keep up to date with how Budget tax changes will be applied

Will Capital Gains Tax rise?

• Capital Gains Tax could be targeted in the Autumn Budget 2026, with reports suggesting the Treasury is modelling possible increases.
• CGT is particularly relevant to landlords and second-home owners because it may be payable on profits when they sell a property that isn’t their main home.
• Currently, gains from residential property are generally taxed at 18% for basic-rate taxpayers and 24% for higher and additional-rate taxpayers, after any available tax-free allowance and deductions. Read more details in our guide Capital Gains Tax on property when selling.
• One option being discussed is bringing Capital Gains Tax rates closer to income tax rates. However, it is not yet clear whether the Chancellor will increase CGT in the Budget 2026 or whether any changes would apply to residential property.
• Landlords and second-home owners considering selling will need to watch the Budget closely, although there is currently no confirmed change to residential property CGT rates.

‘More homes could have to pay the mansion tax’

• The ‘mansion tax’, officially called the High Value Council Tax Surcharge, has been predicted as another area that could be targeted in the Autumn Budget 2026.
• Under current rules, the mansion tax applies from April 2028 to homes in England valued over £2 million, with annual charges of £2,500-£7,500 depending on the value band.
• But there is speculation that the surcharge could be expanded in the Autumn Budget 2026, with reports suggesting the Government may consider lowering the £2 million threshold to £1.5 million and increasing the charges.
• No changes have been confirmed. Read our full guide to the mansion tax and how it will work under the rules already announced.

Scrapping of stamp duty and wider council tax changes ruled out

• Andy Burnham has already ruled out changing or scrapping stamp duty in the Government’s Autumn Budget 2026.
• Asked whether stamp duty would be changed or abolished, he said: “Yes, I can say that quite clearly. That won’t be happening.”
• He also rejected reports that the Government was preparing to replace stamp duty and council tax with a single annual property tax, saying: “It’s just not the case that we are bringing forward plans on that scale at this moment in time.”
• So while wider reforms to the way property is taxed may be considered in future, a major overhaul of stamp duty and council tax is not expected in this Budget.
• Read more about Andy Burnham’s potential property tax policies and our guide to property tax proposals.

At HomeOwners Alliance, we think that if the government wants to be pro-growth, it needs to scrap stamp duty for those buying a home to live in.

Stamp duty is a tax on transactions, which can discourage people from moving and dampen activity in the housing market.

Our latest research revealed more than 800,000 homeowners shelved moving plans because of stamp duty.

Let us know what you think in the comments below

Sign up to our newsletter

to keep up to date with how Budget tax changes will be applied

Related Articles

Sign up to our FREE weekly newsletter

for the latest news, advice and money saving offers

Latest News