KEY INFORMATION
Autumn Budget predictions 2026: at a glance
- Budget date: Chancellor John Healey will deliver the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026.
- Details of a new first time buyer scheme ‘Your First Home’. This government-backed equity loan scheme has been announced to help first-time buyers in England to purchase a new-build home with a 2.5% deposit and a 20% government loan. The Chancellor will release more details at the autumn Budget 2026.
- Inheritance tax: A 10% levy on estates to help fund social care has been rumoured, but the Government says it has “no plans” to introduce it.
- Capital Gains Tax: The Treasury is reportedly modelling possible increases, which could potentially affect landlords and second-home owners if residential property rates are changed.
- Mansion tax: There had been growing speculation that the £2 million threshold could be lowered to £1.5 million, however, this has reportedly been ruled out following opposition from Labour MPs.
- Energy bills: The Chancellor is reportedly considering a package worth more than £1 billion to help lower-income households, potentially including an extra £100 Warm Home Discount for eligible customers.
- Heat pump grants: The Government is reportedly considering cutting funding for grants that help homeowners install heat pumps, with the money instead going towards defence spending. No changes have been confirmed.
- Stamp duty and property tax: Major changes such as replacing stamp duty and council tax with an annual property tax have also been ruled out for this Budget.
- Jump to: Your First Home Scheme | Inheritance tax | Capital Gains Tax | Mansion tax | Energy bills | Stamp duty & property tax
Why could taxes rise in the Autumn Budget 2026?
The Chancellor is under pressure to balance the books, with higher borrowing costs and inflation reducing the amount of headroom available against the Government’s fiscal rules.
The Government has pledged not to increase the main rates of income tax, National Insurance or VAT. This has fuelled speculation that the Chancellor could look to other taxes to raise money, including taxes on property and wealth.
While Healey has not confirmed that taxes will rise, he has not ruled out making changes in the Autumn Budget on 28 October.
The Budget also comes at a difficult time for the housing market, with mortgage rates rising, putting pressure on homebuyers and people remortgaging.
What do we know about the new Your First Home Scheme?
- The Your First Home Scheme is a proposed government-backed equity loan scheme for first-time buyers in England who buy a new-build home from a participating developer.
- Buyers are expected to need a 2.5% deposit, with a 20% government equity loan and a mortgage for the remaining 77.5%. The equity loan will have an initial interest-free period. The scheme will include household income caps and local property price caps, and developers will be expected to contribute towards its cost.
- The Budget on 28 October is expected to confirm further details of exactly how the Your First Home scheme will work. Read more about the Your First Home scheme.
Could inheritance tax be reformed to pay for social care?
- Prime Minister Andy Burnham has promised to reform social care in England but the government has not yet decided how it would be paid for or how much individuals would contribute towards their care.
- He has previously proposed replacing inheritance tax with a care levy to fund a National Care Service. As health secretary under Gordon Brown, he backed replacing traditional inheritance tax – under which a couple can leave an estate worth up to £1 million before any inheritance tax is due, although the amount you can pass on depends on the size of your estate, whether it includes your house and who you leave it to, with a 10% levy on all estates passed on after death.
- The proposal was also intended to reduce the risk of people having to sell their homes to pay for care.
- Speculation that this may be on the cards mounted after both the prime minister and a senior cabinet minister failed to rule it out as a way to pay for the creation of a new National Care Service that Andy Burnham said would cost up to £18.7bn a year.
- However, the government has since said it has “no plans” for a 10% “death tax” on all estates to fund social care reforms.
Will Capital Gains Tax rise?
- Capital Gains Tax could be targeted in the Autumn Budget 2026, with reports suggesting the Treasury is modelling possible increases.
- CGT is particularly relevant to landlords and second-home owners because it may be payable on profits when they sell a property that isn’t their main home.
- Currently, gains from residential property are generally taxed at 18% for basic-rate taxpayers and 24% for higher and additional-rate taxpayers, after any available tax-free allowance and deductions. Find out more in our guide Capital Gains Tax on property when selling.
- One option being discussed is bringing Capital Gains Tax rates closer to income tax rates. However, it is not yet clear whether the Chancellor will increase CGT in the Budget 2026 or whether any changes would apply to residential property.
- Landlords and second-home owners considering selling will need to watch the Budget closely, although there is currently no confirmed change to residential property CGT rates.
‘More homes could have to pay the mansion tax’
- The ‘mansion tax’, officially called the High Value Council Tax Surcharge, had been predicted as another area that could be targeted in the Autumn Budget 2026.
- Under the plans already announced, the mansion tax is due to apply from April 2028 to homes in England valued £2 million or more, with annual charges of £2,500-£7,500 depending on the value band.
- There was speculation that the surcharge could be expanded in the Autumn Budget 2026, with reports suggesting the Government may consider lowering the £2 million threshold to £1.5 million and increasing the charges.
- However, Chancellor John Healey has now ruled out lowering the threshold, according to the Financial Times, following opposition from Labour MPs concerned about the impact on homeowners in London.
- Read our full guide to the mansion tax and how it will work under the rules already announced.
Could there be more help with energy bills?
- The Chancellor could be preparing an energy bills help package worth more than £1 billion for lower-income households in the Autumn Budget 2026, according to reports.
- One option being considered is increasing the £150 Warm Home Discount by £100 for households receiving qualifying benefits, reports The Guardian.
- The news comes after Cornwall Insight forecast that the energy price cap could rise by 16% in January 2027 to £1,999 a year for a typical household. For more information, see our guides to help with energy bills and will energy prices go down in 2026?
- The Government is also reportedly considering wider measures to reduce energy bills. According to the Financial Times, Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh is pushing for some renewable energy costs to be removed from household electricity bills and funded through general taxation instead. This could potentially benefit more households than targeted support alone, although no decision has been announced.
Could heat pump grants be cut in the Autumn Budget?
- The Government is reportedly considering cutting funding for heat pump grants to help pay for increased defence spending.
- According to The Guardian, hundreds of millions of pounds could be cut from the £2.7 billion budget for the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, which helps homeowners in England and Wales replace fossil fuel heating systems with heat pumps.
- The scheme currently offers grants of up to £9,000 for eligible households. However, reports suggest the scheme will not be scrapped entirely, and no cuts have been officially confirmed.
Scrapping of stamp duty and wider council tax changes ruled out
- Andy Burnham has already ruled out changing or scrapping stamp duty in the Government’s Autumn Budget 2026.
- Asked whether stamp duty would be changed or abolished, he said: “Yes, I can say that quite clearly. That won’t be happening.”
- He also rejected reports that the Government was preparing to replace stamp duty and council tax with a single annual property tax, saying: “It’s just not the case that we are bringing forward plans on that scale at this moment in time.”
- So while wider reforms to the way property is taxed may be considered in future, a major overhaul of stamp duty and council tax is not expected in this Budget.
- Read more about Andy Burnham’s potential property tax policies and our guide to property tax proposals.
At HomeOwners Alliance, we think that if the government wants to be pro-growth, it needs to scrap stamp duty for those buying a home to live in.
Stamp duty is a tax on transactions, which can discourage people from moving and dampen activity in the housing market.
Our latest research revealed more than 800,000 homeowners shelved moving plans because of stamp duty.
Autumn Budget Predictions 2026: Our view
Paula Higgins, CEO of HomeOwners Alliance, said:
“Under the current conditions, where mortgage rates, council tax, energy bills, maintenance and building costs are all going through the roof and homeowners are feeling the strain – we’re calling on the Chancellor to not treat homeowners as cash cows.”
Let us know what you think in the comments below
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the Autumn Budget 2026?
The Autumn Budget 2026 will take place on Wednesday 28 October 2026, when Chancellor John Healey will set out the Government’s tax and spending plans. The Office for Budget Responsibility will also publish its latest economic and fiscal forecasts.
What are the main Autumn Budget predictions for 2026?
There has been speculation about possible changes to taxes including Capital Gains Tax, inheritance tax and property taxes.
However, these are Budget predictions rather than confirmed government policy. Proposals reported ahead of the Budget may be changed, delayed or dropped before the Chancellor makes his announcement on 28 October.
Could the Autumn Budget affect interest rates?
Yes, the Budget could influence the outlook for interest rates, particularly if tax and spending measures are expected to affect future inflation and economic growth.
However, the Bank of England sets interest rates independently and will consider the Budget alongside wider economic data. For more detailed information, read our guide to the Latest UK Interest Rate Forecasts.
Could the Budget affect mortgage rates?
Potentially. Fixed mortgage rates don’t simply follow the Bank of England base rate. Swap rates are the primary benchmark lenders use to price fixed-rate mortgages.
If announcements in the Budget change market expectations about the future path of interest rates, swap rates could rise or fall. If swap rates rise, lenders will typically increase fixed mortgage rates; if they fall, cheaper deals may become available. Find more information in our guide to Mortgage rate predictions 2026: Are mortgage rates going down?
Will stamp duty change in the Autumn Budget 2026?
A major change to stamp duty is not currently expected. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has ruled out changing or scrapping stamp duty in this Budget, as well as plans to replace stamp duty and council tax with a single annual property tax.
When do Budget changes typically take effect?
It depends on the measure. Some tax changes can take effect on Budget day or shortly afterwards, while others may not start until the beginning of a future tax year or another date set by the Government.
October 14, 2026 
