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Energy prices are predicted to fall in July. But after recent punishing energy price hikes, costs will still be high. We look at what’s expected to happen and how you can save on your energy bills.
AT A GLANCE
Energy bills are expected to fall in July 2025, when the next energy price cap comes into effect, experts predict. This is due to wholesale energy prices tumbling amid warmer weather and as US tariff announcements stoked fears for economic growth.
Ofgem, which sets the energy price cap, won’t make its official announcement on the price cap until 27 May 2025. But a number of energy price cap forecasts are made much further in advance:
The further ahead the forecast, the less likely it is to be accurate.
Craig Lowrey, Principal Consultant at Cornwall Insight, warned that high volatility in the market means the cap forecast could change again before being set by Ofgem towards the end of May.
He added: ‘While a fall in bills will always be welcomed by households, we mustn’t get ahead of ourselves. We have all seen markets go up as fast as they go down, and the very fact the market dropped so quickly shows how vulnerable it to geopolitical and market shifts.’
While EDF explained, ‘We’re forecasting a small decrease in the cap for the July to September period, due to declines in wholesale gas and electricity prices, largely driven by concerns over the impact of global tariffs. There’s still potential for significant change in wholesale prices during the indexation period, which will end 16 May.’
Find out instantly how much you can save on energy bills with our free switching service today
Compare energy deals, see how much you can save on electricity and gas, switch provider today.
If the energy price cap falls, energy bills will fall for millions of households. But it’s important to note that any reduction in energy costs will come after a succession of price hikes.
This table illustrates how much energy prices have increased in recent months.
| Time period | Energy price cap amount |
| Old cap: 1 October -31 December 2024 | Up 10% to £1,717 a year |
| Old cap: 1 January – 31 March 2025 | Up 1.2% to £1,738 a year |
| Current cap: 1 April – 30 June 2025 | Up 6.4% to £1,849 |
| Predicted future cap: 1 July-31 September 2025 | Prediction Go down to £1,683 – £1,739 |
If you’re one of the 26 million households in the UK on a standard variable tariff, the energy price cap increased by 6.4% on 1 April 2025, taking the average energy bill to £1,849.
| OLD: Energy price cap rates from 1 January to 31 March 2025 | CURRENT Energy price cap rates from 1 April to 30 June 2025 | |
| Gas | Unit rate: av 6.34 per kWhStanding charge: 31.65p per day | Unit rate: av 6.99 per kWh Standing charge: 32.67p per day |
| Electricity | Unit rate: av 24.86p per kWhStanding charge: 60.97p per day | Unit rate: av 27.03p per kWh Standing charge: 53.80p per day |
Energy deals have become increasingly competitive so it’s a good idea to shop around.
The benefits of switching to a fixed energy deal is that you’ll have certainty over how much your bills will be.
But with the energy price cap expected to fall later in the year, you should also be aware that if you fix for a deal that’s too expensive, you’ll pay more over all. So you’ll need to weigh it up.
Energy advice guru Martin Lewis says that based on current published predictions, on price alone, ‘If you find a fix for up to 9% less than the current (Apr to Jun) Price Cap, it’s predicted you’ll save over the year compared with staying on the Price Cap’.
There are also energy deals available that track under the energy price cap. Or that follow the energy price cap’s unit rates but have lower standing charges. So make sure you shop around and switch energy suppliers ASAP if you find a better deal.
But bear in mind that exactly what will happen to energy prices in the longer term is subject to debate and global developments – read on for experts’ predictions on this.
Compare energy deals, see how much you can save on electricity and gas, switch provider today.
Over the past 12 months, we’ve seen a £292.07 average increase (+18.6%) compared to last July’s price cap.
UK households have been facing increased energy costs since 2022, when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out. While energy costs aren’t as high as the peaks we’ve seen, energy prices are still high and unaffordable for many.
Avoid rising energy prices and save money by switching to a fixed energy deal. Find out instantly how much you can save with our free switching service today
Compare energy deals, see how much you can save on electricity and gas, switch provider today.
Cornwall Insight predicts that prices will remain relatively flat over the next three years, before beginning to fall from 2028. It expects that improved gas supplies will be better supported by renewable energy. The consultancy says a possible end to the war in Ukraine would also help ease pressures on energy.
But it says wholesale prices are likely to remain well above averages seen during the last decade, even by 2031.
Yes, most people will be able to save on their energy bill by shopping around and switching to a cheap fixed tariff or a variable deal that charges less than the energy price cap. We’ve partnered with The Energy Shop to provide you with an instant tool for comparing tariffs and seeing how much you can save.
When you’re comparing deals, remember to check how long the fixed deal lasts for any whether you’ll need to pay any exit fees if you want to leave before the end of the deal.
It’s also a good time to check for the best deal if you’re moving house, if your current supplier has poor customer service or you want a specialist tariff such as an EV tariff.
Paula Higgins, Chief Executive of the HomeOwners Alliance, says, ‘Households will welcome the predicted falls in energy prices but after so many energy bills hikes, bills will still be high. We advise people to shop around and switch energy suppliers to ensure you’re on the best deal for you.’
Compare energy deals, see how much you can save on electricity and gas, switch provider today.
Once you’ve shopped around for the best energy deal, the other way to save on energy bills is to use less. You can do this by:
For more ideas read out Top 10 Energy Saving Tips guide
Yes, some help is available for energy bills. For example, individual energy companies have hardship funds. Find out more in our guide on Energy grants and how to get them.
Avoid rising energy prices by shopping around and switching to a fixed energy deal. Find out instantly how much you can save with our free switching service today
Compare energy deals, see how much you can save on electricity and gas, switch provider today.
Here are the historic price changes to Ofgem’s energy price cap, which shows how energy bills have increased and decreased in recent years.
| Price cap period | Ofgem energy price cap | Price cap change vs previous period |
| April – June 2025 | £1,849 | +6.4% |
| January – March 2025 | £1,738 | +1% |
| October – December 2024 | £1,717 | +10% |
| July – September 2024 | £1,568 | -7% |
| April – June 2024 | £1,690 | -12% |
| January – March 2024 | £1,928 | +5% |
| October – December 2023 | £1,834 | -7% |
| July – September 2023 | £1,976 | -37% |
| April – June 2023 | £3,116* | -23% |
| January – March 2023 | £4,059* | 20% |
| October – December 2022 | £3,371* | 80% |
| Summer 2022 | £1,877 | 54% |
| Winter 2021/22 | £1,216 | 12% |
| Summer 2021 | £1,084 | 9% |
Source: Ofgem data. *This was replaced by the £2,500 Energy Price Guarantee
