House Price Watch Sept 2024
House prices are up again this month and buyer demand and sales agreed are reported to be up 25% year on year as borrowing costs ease. While activity is up, house price growth is expected to remain modest in the months ahead with a steady supply of new homes for sale and buyers still price sensitive -- housing costs remain a challenge for many.
What’s happening nationally
House prices are up on average +0.8% over the past month and +3.6% over the past year.
All of the indices report house prices up this month: Halifax (+0.3%), Nationwide (+0.7%), Rightmove reporting asking prices (+0.8%) and Land Registry reporting August figures (+1.5%).. Annual house price growth is reported to be up by all the indices (ranging from a low of +1.2% by Rightmove to a high of +4.7% by Halifax).
Indices based on:
Land Registry – registered property transactions in August.
Nationwide & Halifax – mortgage valuations in September.
Rightmove – asking prices posted on Rightmove in September.
*Rightmove is not included in the index average as the basis for its index is different (asking price vs agreed sale price)
| Index reports: | Monthly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
| Land registry | +1.5% | +2.8% |
| Nationwide | +0.7% | +3.2% |
| Halifax | +0.3% | +4.7% |
| Rightmove | +0.8% | +1.2% |
| Average change | +0.8% | +3.6% |
House prices in your area
House prices increased in most areas of the UK over the past month with the biggest rises in Northern Ireland (+3.6%), Wales (+2.6%), Yorkshire & Humber (+2.7%), the North West (+2.4%) and London (+2.2%).
House prices have also increased over the past year in all areas with the biggest rises in Northern Ireland (+6.4%) and Scotland (+5.4%). Within England, house price shifts range from a low of +0.8% in the South West to a high of 4.6% in the North West.
Average house prices remain highest in London (£531K) and lowest in the North East (£166K).
In terms of monthly house price shifts by type of property, detached homes were up +1.7%, semi detached properties up +3.6%, terraced properties were up +3.0% and flats/ maisonettes up by +2.6% according to August Land Registry data.
| UK Region | Average price £ | Monthly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | |||
| Nothern Ireland | |||
| Scotland | |||
| Wales | |||
| North West | |||
| Yorkshire and The Humber | |||
| North East | |||
| West Midlands | |||
| East Midlands | |||
| South West | |||
| East of England | |||
| South East | |||
| London |
| UK City | Average price | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
Market Monitor
There were 90.2K transactions in August 2024, largely unchanged from July (-0.4%) and 5% higher than August 2023 (when transactions were at a 10 year low). Zoopla and Rightmove report that year to date agreed sales are up approximately 25% year on year.
Demand increased for the third month in a row in September, up 14%. This was matched with an increase in the number of new listings for sale (+22%) resulting in an increase in the homes available for sale.
Evidence of buyer price sensitivity remains as average time to sell is 60 days (August figure). This is still up slightly from a year ago (57 days last August).
How busy is the market?
- Not busy
- Normal
- Very busy
- Transactions steady month on month
- Total transactions in Aug 2024 90.2K
- -0.4% from last month
- +5% from August last year
Homes for sale vs homebuyers
- Good availability of homes
- Normal
- Shortage of homes
- Buyer enquiries up(+14% RICS); third month in a row of rising demand
- Seller enquiries up (+22% RICS); new instructions up
- Average stock per agent 62; August figure (incl under offer/ Sold STC Rightmove)
Average speed of sale
- Fast
- Normal
- Slow
- 60 days to find a buyer down from peak of 78 days in January (up from 57 days last August, Rightmove)
What the experts say
Rightmove - agent's view
“The autumn action has started early with a strong rebound in activity from both buyers and sellers compared to the subdued market at this time last year, continuing the momentum from the better-than-expected summer market. The certainty of a new government followed by the first Bank Rate cut in four years invigorated the market, opening a window of opportunity for movers to act. Some of this will be pent-up demand from those who had to hit the pause button until now. However, windows of opportunity tend to need a momentum of good news to stay open, and there are still uncertainties ahead which could cause some of the current market activity to ease.”
Nationwide
“UK house prices increased in September and the annual rate of growth is the fastest pace since November 2022. Average prices are now around 2% below the all-time highs recorded in summer 2022. Income growth has continued to outstrip house price growth in recent months while borrowing costs have edged lower amid expectations that the Bank of England will continue to lower interest rates in the coming quarters. These trends have helped to improve affordability for prospective buyers and underpinned a modest increase in activity and house prices, though both remain subdued by historic standards.”
Zoopla (Hometrack)
“Home buyers are benefitting from the lowest average mortgage rates for 15 months, which is supporting double-digit growth in all key measures of sales market activity. Nationally, home buyer demand is 26% higher than a year ago. The number of sales agreed is 25% higher than a year ago. Increased sales activity is supporting modest price rises. Affordability remains a constraint on house price growth and rising sales volumes are being supported by more homes available for sale, up 12% on this time last year. Speculation over possible tax changes in the Budget is likely to support the growth in supply as investors, second home owners and others with multiple homes consider selling. Nearly a third (32%) of homes for sale on Zoopla are ‘chain-free’.”
Halifax
“UK house prices climbed for the third month in a row. Annual growth edged up to the highest rate since November 2022. It’s essential to view these recent gains in context. While the typical property value has risen by around £13,000 over the past year, this increase is largely a recovery of the ground lost over the previous 12 months. Looking back two years, prices have increased by just +0.4% (£1,202). Market conditions have steadily improved into early autumn. Mortgage affordability has been easing thanks to strong wage growth and falling interest rates. This has boosted confidence among potential buyers, with mortgages agreed up over 40% in the last year and at their highest level since July 2022. While improved mortgage affordability should support buyer activity – boosted by anticipated further cuts to interest rates – housing costs remain a challenge for many. As a result we expect property price growth over the rest of this year and into next to remain modest.”
RICS
“The September 2024 RICS Residential Survey results point to a sustained improvement in market activity, with measures of demand, sales and new listings all continuing to return positive readings. Moreover, forward-looking sentiment is consistent with further modest growth in headline sales volumes over the coming months, while expectations for the year ahead are also firmly in expansionary territory.”
