House Price Watch Nov 2024
House prices are up again this month and on track to finish the year up 4% on average. Transactions exceeded 100K this month for the first time in two years with 2024 transactions now expected to be up 10% year on year. Looking ahead to 2025, most of the house price indices expect the current market momentum to continue with interest rates expected to gradually fall and earnings growth to outpace house price inflation. Modest house price inflation is expected in the 2-4% range in 2025.
What’s happening nationally
House prices are up on average +0.9% over the past month and +4% over the past year
Apart from Rightmove reporting asking prices (-1.4%), all of the indices reported house prices to be up over the past month: Land Registry (+0.2%), Nationwide (+1.2%) and Halifax (+1.3%). Annual house price growth is reported to be up by all the indices (ranging from a low of +1.2% by Rightmove to a high of +4.8% by Halifax).
Indices based on:
Land Registry – registered property transactions in October.
Nationwide & Halifax – mortgage valuations in November.
Rightmove – asking prices posted on Rightmove in November.
*Rightmove is not included in the index average as the basis for its index is different (asking price vs agreed sale price)
| Index reports: | Monthly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
| Land registry | +0.2% | +3.4% |
| Nationwide | +1.2% | +3.7% |
| Halifax | +1.3% | +4.8% |
| Rightmove | -1.4% | +1.2% |
| Average change | +0.9% | +4% |
House prices in your area
House prices were up in most areas of country this month with the biggest rises in Northern Ireland (+2.8%), Wales (+2%) and the South West (1.5%). House prices dropped this month in the North East (-1.6%), London (-1.4%), the West Midlands (-0.3%) and the South East (-0.3%).
Over the last year, house prices have increased in all regions with the biggest rises in Northern Ireland (+6.2%), Scotland (+5.5%), the North East (+4.7%), Yorkshire & Humber (+4.6%) and the North West (+4.4%). The slowest annual growth was in London (+0.2%) and the South East of England (+1.7%).
Average house prices remain highest in London (£520K) and lowest in the North East (£167K)
House prices increased in the last year for semi detached properties (+3.8%), terraced properties (+3.8%), detached (+3.2%) and flats/ maisonettes (+2.7%) according to October Land Registry data.
| UK Region | Average price £ | Monthly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | |||
| Nothern Ireland | |||
| Scotland | |||
| Wales | |||
| North West | |||
| Yorkshire and The Humber | |||
| North East | |||
| West Midlands | |||
| East Midlands | |||
| South West | |||
| East of England | |||
| South East | |||
| London |
| UK City | Average price | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
Market Monitor
Transactions were up significantly this month. There were 100.4K transactions in October (up 9.5% on September) and up 21% on last October. This is the first time in two years transactions have exceeded 100,000.
New buyer enquiries increased for the fifth month in a row (+12%). This was matched with an increase in the number of new listings for sale (+17%), although Rightmove report a slight drop in properties available for sale (average stock per agent down to 61 from 63 in October).
The average time to secure a buyer is up to 65 days from 61 days last month according to Rightmove. However, the time to sell has improved from the peak of 78 days in January.
How busy is the market?
- Not busy
- Normal
- Very busy
- Transactions exceed 100K for first time in 2 years
- Total transactions in Oct 2024 100.4K
- +9.5% from last month
- +21% from Oct last year
Homes for sale vs homebuyers
- Good availability of homes
- Normal
- Shortage of homes
- Buyer enquiries up(+12% RICS); fifth month in a row of rising demand
- Seller instructions up (+17% RICS)
- Average stock per agent 61; down from 63 in Oct(incl under offer/ Sold STC Rightmove)
Average speed of sale
- Fast
- Normal
- Slow
- 65 days to find a buyer up from 61 days in Oct but down from peak of 78 days in January Rightmove
What the experts say
Rightmove
“New seller asking prices drop with the usual monthly fall as Christmas approaches. Despite the festive lull, activity remains substantially stronger than the same period a year ago with the number of sales being agreed up by 22% and new buyer demand up by 13%. Rightmove’s 2025 forecast is that average new seller asking prices will rise by 4%, our highest prediction since 2021 with lower mortgage rates releasing some of the pent-up housing demand and putting modest upwards pressure on prices.”
Nationwide
“The price of a typical UK home rose by 3.7% year on year in November, marking the fastest rate of annual growth for two years (November 2022). Looking ahead to 2025, upcoming changes to stamp duty are likely to generate volatility, as buyers bring forward their purchases to avoid the additional tax. This will lead to a jump in transactions in the first three months of 2025 (especially in March) and a corresponding period of weakness in the following three to six months, as occurred in the wake of previous stamp duty changes. But, providing the economy continues to recover steadily, as we expect, the underlying pace of housing market activity is likely to continue to strengthen gradually as affordability constraints ease through a combination of modestly lower interest rates and earnings outpacing house price growth, where the latter is likely to remain broadly in the 2-4% range in 2025.”
Zoopla (Hometrack)
“The housing market has returned to growth in 2024 thanks to rising incomes and lower mortgage rates. The sales market is on track for 1.1m sales completions over 2024 – 10% higher than 2023. The pipeline of sales is also 30% larger than this time last year which will support sales completions and deliver a boost in Q1 2025. The key question is whether the current momentum in sales will continue over 2025. We believe it will, supported by rising incomes and changes in the way lenders assess affordability. We expect house prices to rise by 2.5% over 2025 with 5% more sales compared to 2024. The best market conditions will be seen in regional markets where affordability is less of a barrier to moving.”
Halifax
“UK house prices rose for the fifth month in a row in November, up by +1.3% in the month – the biggest increase so far this year. This pushed the annual growth rate up to +4.8%, its strongest level since November 2022. As we move towards the end of the year and into 2025, positive employment figures and anticipated decreases in interest rates are expected to continue supporting demand. Modest house price growth in the range of 0% to +3% is expected for 2025, along with a further small increase in the number of transactions.”
RICS
“The November 2024 RICS Residential Survey results remain consistent with a gentle up-trend across the market, with metrics on new buyer demand, new instructions and house prices all continuing to register readings in expansionary territory. Looking ahead, despite the rise in mortgage interest rates seen over recent weeks, respondents still foresee a modest improvement in sales activity over the near-term, albeit expectations have been scaled back somewhat.”
