House Price Watch June 2024
House prices edged up this month with transactions their highest since March last year. But, there are signs that some movers are waiting for when the first interest rate cut will be. Buyer demand has fallen for the last three months and new seller instructions fell for the first time in six months. Mortgage affordability is still the biggest challenge for homebuyers and timing of the first cut in the base rate will be key to market activity.
What’s happening nationally
House prices are up on average +0.4% over the past month and +1.8% over the past year.
Most of the indices report house prices in June to be broadly stable. Nationwide (+0.2%), Rightmove (0%), Halifax (-0.2%). Land Registry reporting May figures shows house prices up (+1.2%). Annual house price growth is reported to be up by all the indices (ranging from a low of +0.6% by Rightmove to a high of +2.2% by Land Registry).
Indices based on:
Land Registry – registered property transactions in May.
Nationwide & Halifax – mortgage valuations in June.
Rightmove – asking prices posted on Rightmove in June.
*Rightmove is not included in the index average as the basis for its index is different (asking price vs agreed sale price)
| Index reports: | Monthly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
| Land registry | +1.2% | +2.2% |
| Nationwide | +0.2% | +1.5% |
| Halifax | -0.2% | +1.5% |
| Rightmove | 0.0% | +0.6% |
| Average change | +0.4% | +1.8% |
House prices in your area
House prices increased in all areas of the UK over the past month with the biggest rises in London (+3.9%), Wales (+2.5%), West Midlands (+2.3%), Yorkshire & Humber (+1.9%) and the North East (1.5%).
House prices have also increased over the past year in all areas with the smallest annual increase in London (+0.2%) and the largest in Northern Ireland (+4%), Yorkshire & Humber (+3.9%) and the North East (+3.7%).
Average house prices remain highest in London (£523K) and lowest in the North East (£162K).
In terms of monthly house price shifts by type of property, detached homes were up +3.5%, semi detached properties up +3.9%, terraced properties were up +2.0% and flats/ maisonettes fell by -0.9% according to May Land Registry data.
| UK Region | Average price £ | Monthly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | |||
| Nothern Ireland | |||
| Scotland | |||
| Wales | |||
| North West | |||
| Yorkshire and The Humber | |||
| North East | |||
| West Midlands | |||
| East Midlands | |||
| South West | |||
| East of England | |||
| South East | |||
| London |
| UK City | Average price | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
Market Monitor
There were 91.3K transactions in May 2024, up 2% on April and 17% higher than May 2023. This is the highest level of transactions since March last year.
Demand continued to fall this month (down for the last three months). New instructions from sellers fell for the first time in six months. The average stock per agent nudged upwards.
Time to sell has improved in recent months from a peak of 78 days in January to 59 days in June. This is still up from a year ago (55 days last June).
How busy is the market?
- Not busy
- Normal
- Very busy
- Agreed sales reported to be up 8% year on year. Completed transactions at highest level since March last year.
- Total transactions in May 2024 91.3K
- +2% from last month
- +17% from May last year
Homes for sale vs homebuyers
- Good availability of homes
- Normal
- Shortage of homes
- Buyer enquiries down(-7% RICS); demand has dropped for the last 3 months
- Seller enquiries down (-9% RICS); down for the first time in 6 months
- Average stock per agent 61; up from 59 last month (incl under offer/ Sold STC Rightmove)
Average speed of sale
- Fast
- Normal
- Slow
- 59 days to find a buyer down from peak of 78 days in January (up from 55 days last June, Rightmove)
What the experts say
Rightmove - agent's view
“Despite concern among some that the General Election campaign would lead to a significant slowdown in homemoving activity, the vast majority of people have been getting on with their moves since the election was called. But, a key concern for many home-movers is when the first Bank of England Base Rate cut will be, and there are signs that some movers are waiting for this before acting. There’s a slight drop (-2%) in buyer demand in the affordability-stretched first-time buyer sector, as some look to rate cuts to improve their affordability. Some good news for home-movers is that the financial markets expect that the first Base Rate cut will be in August or September. Though this expectation could change over the coming weeks, it would be a boost for home-movers and market sentiment leading into Autumn.”
Nationwide
“UK house prices edged up in June leaving prices around 3% below the all-time high recorded in the summer of 2022. While earnings growth has been much stronger than house price growth in recent years, this hasn’t been enough to offset the impact of higher mortgage rates. As a result, housing affordability is still stretched. Today, a borrower earning the average UK income buying a typical first-time buyer property with a 20% deposit would have a monthly mortgage payment equivalent to 37% of take-home pay – well above the long run average of 30%.”
Zoopla (Hometrack)
“The recent pick up in sales momentum has continued over June, albeit at a slightly slower pace than the previous 2-3 months. New sales agreed are still running 8% higher than a year ago. However, the housing market continues to adjust to higher borrowing costs. The summer slowdown is now arriving, tempering activity. The timing of the first cut in the base rate is key and will give a boost to market sentiment and sales activity.”
Halifax
“This continued stability in house prices – rising by just +0.4% so far this year – reflects a market that remains subdued, though overall activity has been recovering. Mortgage affordability is still the biggest challenge facing both homebuyers and those coming to the end of fixed-term deals. This issue is likely to be eased gradually, through a combination of lower interest rates, rising incomes, and more restrained growth in house prices.”
RICS
“The June 2024 RICS Residential Survey results continue to point to a relatively subdued market backdrop at present, with indicators on buyer demand, sales and prices remaining in slightly negative territory. That said, despite recent months showing a softening in momentum, respondents expectations have now turned a little more optimistic with regards to the near-term outlook for sales activity.”
