House Price Watch Feb 2024
The rise in house prices and pick-up in market activity continued into February with buyer demand up again this month. The decline in mortgage rates at the start of the year has prompted an uptick in the housing market. Nevertheless the near-term outlook remains cautious and activity could cool again as the recent easing in mortgage rates is likely to stall on the back of uncertainty around the timing of Bank of England interest rate reductions.
What’s happening nationally
House prices are up on average +0.5% over the past month and +0.8% over the past year.
All of the indices report a rise in house prices over the past month. Land Registry reporting January figures still shows negative annual house price growth (-0.6%), while the other major indices are all reporting a rise in annual house price growth in February.
Indices based on:
Land Registry – registered property transactions in January.
Nationwide & Halifax – mortgage valuations in February.
Rightmove – asking prices posted on Rightmove in February.
*Rightmove is not included in the index average as the basis for its index is different (asking price vs agreed sale price)
| Index reports: | Monthly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
| Land registry | +0.5% | -0.6% |
| Nationwide | +0.7% | +1.2% |
| Halifax | +0.4% | +1.7% |
| Rightmove | +0.9% | +0.1% |
| Average change | +0.5% | +0.8% |
House prices in your area
House price fluctuations over the past month show a mixed picture across the UK with Land Registry reporting house prices up in Scotland (+1.3%) and down in Northern Ireland (-0.9%) and Wales (-0.1%).
In England, house prices are up in London (+2.5%), the South West (+1.5%), the East of England (+1.2%), and the West Midlands (+0.6%) and down in the North East (-1.7%), the East Midlands (-1.4%) and Yorkshire & Humber (-0.7%).
Average house prices remain highest in London (£518K) and lowest in the North East (£155K).
In terms of monthly house price shifts by type of property, detached homes were up +0.4%, semi detached properties remained stable, terraced properties were down -1.2% and flats/ maisonettes down -1.7% according to January Land Registry data.
| UK Region | Average price £ | Monthly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | |||
| Nothern Ireland | |||
| Scotland | |||
| Wales | |||
| North West | |||
| Yorkshire and The Humber | |||
| North East | |||
| West Midlands | |||
| East Midlands | |||
| South West | |||
| East of England | |||
| South East | |||
| London |
| UK City | Average price | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
Market Monitor
There were 82K transactions in January 2024, up 2% on December but 12% lower than January 2023. Transactions continue to be at their lowest level in 10 years (excepting the period of the pandemic in 2020).
Demand has started to pick up with new buyer enquiries up. New sales instructions were fairly steady. Average stock per agent has increased month on month.
Time to sell has dropped to 71 days up from 78 days last month but is still up significantly from a year ago (57 days last February).
How busy is the market?
- Not busy
- Normal
- Very busy
- Transactions up slightly in January but still at a ten year low.
- Total transactions in January 2024 82K
- +2% from last month
- -12% from January last year
Homes for sale vs homebuyers
- Good availability of homes
- Normal
- Shortage of homes
- Buyer enquiries up(+6% RICS); demand up 2 months in a row
- Seller enquiries steady (-3% RICS); above the 12 month average (-22%)
- Average stock per agent 51; up from 49 last month (incl under offer/ Sold STC Rightmove)
Average speed of sale
- Fast
- Normal
- Slow
- 71 days to find a buyer down from 78 days in January (up from 57 days last February, Rightmove)
What the experts say
Rightmove - agent's view
“Mortgage rates have fallen considerably from their peak and are now remaining broadly stable after the uncertainty of late 2022 and 2023. Momentum to move in 2024 is continuing to build, but prospective sellers mustn’t get carried away. Buyers now have more choice of property for sale and many are still very price-sensitive, with mortgage rates remaining elevated. Sellers who are serious about moving this year would be well-advised to ride this wave of increased buyer confidence with an attractive asking price before any pre-election jitters or unexpected events dampen the momentum.”
Nationwide
“House prices are now around 3% below the all-time highs recorded in the summer of 2022, after taking account of seasonal effects. The decline in borrowing costs around the turn of the year appears to have prompted an uptick in the housing market. Nevertheless, near-term prospects remain highly uncertain, in part due to ongoing uncertainty about the future path of interest rates. After falling sharply in late December, swap rates, which underpin fixed rate mortgage pricing, have drifted back up. Borrowing costs remain well below the highs recorded last summer but, if the recent upward trend is sustained, it threatens to restrain the pace of any housing market recovery.”
Halifax
“The figures continue to suggest a relatively stable start to 2024 and align with other promising signs of increased housing activity, such as mortgage approvals. In fact, the average price tag of a home is now only around £1,800 off the peak seen in June 2022. While it is encouraging that we’ve seen growth in recent months, what happens next remains uncertain. Although lower mortgage rates, alongside expectations of Bank of England interest rate cuts this year, should help buyer confidence in the short term, the downward trend on rates is showing signs of fading.”
Zoopla (Hometrack)
“The housing market has proved very resilient to higher mortgage rates and cost of living pressures. More sales and more sellers shows growing confidence amongst households and evidence that 4-5% mortgage rates are not a barrier to improving market conditions.”
RICS
“The February 2024 RICS UK Residential Survey results are consistent with a slightly more upbeat picture for sales market activity than was the case throughout much of last year. Nevertheless, the near-term outlook is still somewhat cautious, reflecting in part, the suspicion that the recent easing in mortgage rates is likely to stall on the back of ongoing uncertainty about the timing and speed of interest rate reductions.”
