House Price Watch Dec 2024
House prices finished the year up 3.8% on average and 2024 transactions are expected to be up 10% year on year. Looking ahead to 2025, some volatility is expected with upcoming changes to stamp duty and uncertainty around the impact of the budget on consumer confidence. Generally, though with interest rates expected to gradually fall and earnings growth expected to outpace house price inflation, experts are forecasting modest house price inflation of 2-4% in 2025.
What’s happening nationally
House prices held steady over the past month and finished the year up +3.8% on average.
A few of the indices reported a fall in house prices over the past month: Land Registry reporting November figures -0.4%, Halifax -0.2% and Rightmove reporting asking prices -1.7%. Nationwide reported a rise in December of +0.7%. All of the indices recorded an increase in annual house price growth: Rightmove asking prices up +1.4%, Land Registry up +3.3%, Halifax up +3.3% and Nationwide up 4.7%.
Indices based on:
Land Registry – registered property transactions in November.
Nationwide & Halifax – mortgage valuations in December.
Rightmove – asking prices posted on Rightmove in December.
*Rightmove is not included in the index average as the basis for its index is different (asking price vs agreed sale price)
| Index reports: | Monthly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
| Land registry | -0.4% | +3.3% |
| Nationwide | +0.7% | +4.7% |
| Halifax | -0.2% | +3.3% |
| Rightmove | -1.7% | +1.4% |
| Average change | +0% | +3.8% |
House prices in your area
House prices were up this month in: Northern Ireland (+2.8%), the North East (+1.1%), the North West (+0.6%) and Yorkshire and Humber (+0.8%). House prices held steady in the West Midlands and dropped this month in the South West (-1.8%), London and the East of England (-1.0%) Scotland (-0.8%), Wales (-0.7%), South East (-0.7%) and the East Midlands (-0.4%).
Over the last year, house prices have increased in most regions with the biggest rises in Northern Ireland (+6.2%), the North East (+5.9%), Yorkshire & Humber (+5.7%), the North West (+5.7%) and Scotland (+4.7%). The slowest annual growth was in London (-0.1%) and the South East of England (+1.4%).
Average house prices remain highest in London (£511K) and lowest in the North East (£168K).
House prices increased in the last year for terraced properties(+4.7%), semi detached properties (+4.3%), flats/ maisonettes (2.1%) and detached (+1.5%) and according to November Land Registry data.
| UK Region | Average price £ | Monthly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | |||
| Nothern Ireland | |||
| Scotland | |||
| Wales | |||
| North West | |||
| Yorkshire and The Humber | |||
| North East | |||
| West Midlands | |||
| East Midlands | |||
| South West | |||
| East of England | |||
| South East | |||
| London |
| UK City | Average price | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
Market Monitor
Transactions were down this month. There were 92.6K transactions in November (down -8% on October) and up 13% on last November – when transactions were at near record lows.
New buyer enquiries were up in November for the fifth month in a row (+12%). This was matched with an increase in the number of new listings for sale (+17%) resulting in an increase in the homes available for sale.
The average time to secure a buyer is 65 days according to Rightmove (November data), up from 61 days in October. The time to sell has been in the range of 59-64 days since March; down from the peak of 78 days in January.
How busy is the market?
- Not busy
- Normal
- Very busy
- Transactions drop back in November
- Total transactions in Nov 2024 92.6K
- -8% from last month
- +13% from Nov last year
Homes for sale vs homebuyers
- Good availability of homes
- Normal
- Shortage of homes
- Buyer enquiries up(+12% RICS Nov data); fifth month in a row of rising demand
- Seller instructions up (+17% RICS Nov data)
- Average stock per agent 61 in Nov; down from 63 in Oct(incl under offer/ Sold STC Rightmove)
Average speed of sale
- Fast
- Normal
- Slow
- 65 days to find a buyer in November up from 61 days in October but down from peak of 78 days in January Rightmove
What the experts say
Rightmove
“New seller asking prices drop with the usual monthly fall as Christmas approaches. Despite the festive lull, activity remains substantially stronger than the same period a year ago with the number of sales being agreed up by 22% and new buyer demand up by 13%. Rightmove’s 2025 forecast is that average new seller asking prices will rise by 4%, our highest prediction since 2021 with lower mortgage rates releasing some of the pent-up housing demand and putting modest upwards pressure on prices.”
Nationwide
“UK house prices ended 2024 on a strong footing, up 4.7% compared with December 2023, though prices were still just below the all-time high recorded in summer 2022. Mortgage market activity and house prices proved surprisingly resilient in 2024 given the ongoing affordability challenges facing potential buyers. Upcoming changes to stamp duty are likely to generate volatility, as buyers bring forward their purchases to avoid the additional tax. But, providing the economy continues to recover steadily, as we expect, the underlying pace of housing market activity is likely to continue to strengthen gradually as affordability constraints ease through a combination of modestly lower interest rates and earnings outpacing house price growth, where the latter is likely to remain broadly in the 2-4% range in 2025.”
Zoopla (Hometrack)
“Sales market activity has rebounded over 2024 as buyers and sellers return to the market. This has boosted sales volumes, but buyers remain price-sensitive, especially in the wake of the Budget and uncertainty over the outlook for mortgage rates in 2025. We expect house prices to rise by 2.5% over 2025 with 5% more sales compared to 2024.”
Halifax
“The housing market was broadly steady at the start of 2024, with house price growth taking off from the summer onwards. In the latter half of the year, house prices grew in response to the falls in mortgage rates, alongside income growth, both leading to financial pressures somewhat easing for buyers. Impending changes to Stamp Duty thresholds have also given prospective first-time buyers even greater motivation to get on the housing ladder and bring any home-buying plans forward. Together, these elements meant mortgage demand picked up, hitting the highest level in over two years and back to levels seen pre-pandemic. Where does that leave the housing market for 2025? Providing employment conditions don’t deteriorate markedly from a more recent softening, modest house price growth in the range of 0% to +3% is expected for 2025, along with a further small increase in the number of transactions.”
