House Price Watch Apr 2024
Buyer demand stalled this month as mortgage rates edged up as a result of expectations around Bank of England base rate changes, with markets now pricing in a slower pace of cuts. However, there are still positive signs that market activity is picking up with new instructions from sellers at their highest level since 2020, agreed sales up 13% year on year and mortgage approvals at their highest in 18 months. Homebuyers remain price sensitive, keeping a lid on house price growth.
What’s happening nationally
House prices are up on average +0.1% over the past month and +1.2% over the past year.
All of the indices except Nationwide show house prices up over the past month. Land Registry (+0.7%), Halifax (+0.1%) and Rightmove reporting asking prices (+1.1%). Nationwide reports a slowing of house prices in the past 2 months, down -0.4% in April. Annual house price growth is reported to be up by all the indices (ranging from a low of +0.6% by Nationwide to a high of +1.8% by Land Registry.
Indices based on:
Land Registry – registered property transactions in March.
Nationwide & Halifax – mortgage valuations in April.
Rightmove – asking prices posted on Rightmove in April.
*Rightmove is not included in the index average as the basis for its index is different (asking price vs agreed sale price)
| Index reports: | Monthly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
| Land registry | +0.7% | +1.8% |
| Nationwide | -0.4% | +0.6% |
| Halifax | +0.1% | +1.1% |
| Rightmove | +1.1% | +1.7% |
| Average change | +0.1% | +1.3% |
House prices in your area
House prices increased in most areas of the UK over the past month with the biggest rises in: Scotland (+2.3%), Yorkshire & Humber (+2.2%), the West Midlands (+1.4%) and the North West (+1.1%).
House prices fell over the past month in London (-0.9%) and the North East (-0.4%).
Average house prices remain highest in London (£500K) and lowest in the North East (£159K).
In terms of monthly house price shifts by type of property, detached homes were up +2.5%, semi detached properties up +2.2%, terraced properties were up +1.3% and flats/ maisonettes up +1.0% according to March Land Registry data.
| UK Region | Average price £ | Monthly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | |||
| Nothern Ireland | |||
| Scotland | |||
| Wales | |||
| North West | |||
| Yorkshire and The Humber | |||
| North East | |||
| West Midlands | |||
| East Midlands | |||
| South West | |||
| East of England | |||
| South East | |||
| London |
| UK City | Average price | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
Market Monitor
There were 84K transactions in March 2024, up 1% on February but 6% lower than March 2023. Completed transactions continue to be at their lowest level in 10 years (excepting the period of the pandemic in 2020), although agreed sales are reported to be up year on year.
The recent recovery in demand has stalled this month with new buyer enquiries down but new instructions from sellers increased significantly – the highest level of new listings since late 2020. As a result the average stock per agent has also improved.
Time to sell has improved in recent months from a peak of 78 days in January to 62 days in April. This is still up from a year ago (55 days last April).
How busy is the market?
- Not busy
- Normal
- Very busy
- Agreed sales reported to be up 13% year on year. Completed transactions up slightly in March but still at a ten year low.
- Total transactions in March 2024 84K
- +1% from last month
- -6% from March last year
Homes for sale vs homebuyers
- Good availability of homes
- Normal
- Shortage of homes
- Buyer enquiries down(-1% RICS); demand stalls after rising 3 months in a row
- Seller enquiries up (+23% RICS); highest level since late 2020
- Average stock per agent 56; up from 53 last month (incl under offer/ Sold STC Rightmove)
Average speed of sale
- Fast
- Normal
- Slow
- 62 days to find a buyer down from peak of 78 days in January (up from 55 days last April, Rightmove)
What the experts say
Rightmove - agent's view
“The top-of-the-ladder sector continues to drive pricing activity at the start of the year, with movers in this sector typically less sensitive to higher mortgage rates, and more equity rich, contributing to their ability to move. While some buyers, across all sectors, will feel that their affordability has improved compared to last year due to wage growth and stable house prices, others will be more impacted by cost-of-living challenges and stickier than expected high mortgage rates. Despite these factors, it has been a positive start to the year in comparison to the more muted start to 2023. However, agents report that the market remains very price-sensitive, and despite the current optimism, these are not the conditions to support substantial price growth. Sellers who are keen to secure their sale will still need to price realistically for their local market and avoid being overambitious at the start of marketing to give themselves the best chance of finding a buyer.”
Nationwide
“UK house prices fell by 0.4% in April, after taking account of seasonal effects. This resulted in a slowing in the annual rate of house price growth. The slowdown likely reflects ongoing affordability pressures, with longer term interest rates rising in recent months, reversing the steep fall seen around the turn of the year. House prices are now around 4% below the all-time highs recorded in the summer of 2022, after taking account of seasonal effects.”
Halifax
“UK house prices held steady in April. Average house prices have largely plateaued in the early part of 2024. This reflects a housing market finding its feet in an era of higher interest rates. While borrowing costs remain more expensive than a few years ago, homebuyers are gaining confidence from a period of relative stability. Activity and demand is improving, evidenced by greater numbers of mortgage applications so far this year, while at an industry level mortgage approvals have reached their highest point in 18 months.”
Zoopla (Hometrack)
“The housing market continues to adjust to higher mortgage rates. Sales volumes are rising and house prices are flat. What the market needs most is continued price stability which will create the environment for continued growth in sales. Average mortgage rates for a 5-year fix at 75% loan-to-value have fallen back to 4.5% over recent months. They have started to drift higher in recent weeks on shifting expectations for interest rates cuts later this year. We expect mortgage rates to average 4.5% over 2024, which in our view is consistent with +/-1% house price growth.”
RICS
“The April 2024 RICS UK Residential Survey results show the recent recovery in buyer demand stuttering slightly, with the market seemingly impacted by the slight upward move in mortgage rates over the past few weeks. Nevertheless, forward-looking sentiment continues to point to a stronger picture for sales market activity coming through over the next twelve months.”
