House price crash 2026: A risk or reality?

There’s speculation that a house price crash could be happening in the UK property market. We drill into the detail to look at which properties have dropped in value, whether this really amounts to a house price crash, and what you should do.
house price crash

KEY INFORMATION

House Price Crash 2026 Summary

  • Some homeowners in London are experiencing a ‘house price crash’, with many properties in central London selling at a considerable loss.
  • Flats across London have been especially hit by falling prices, with the average price of a flat in the capital dropping by 7% since the start of 2023, with expensive areas including Marylebone, Maida Vale and St John’s Wood being worst hit.
  • However, even within London, not all areas have been affected by falling house prices, with some more affordable areas seeing house prices reach an all-time high last autumn.
  • Across England and Wales, 38% of new build flats sold for a loss in 2025, rising to nearly two thirds in the North East. By contrast, just 6.3% of ex-new build houses sold at a loss.
  • Even among second-hand flats, almost one in five sellers sold for less than they paid in 2025 – far higher than the rate for houses.
  • However, a house price crash is not expected across the board in the UK. In fact, 2026 UK house price predictions are expected to gently trend 1%-4% upwards in 2026.
  • To keep up with all the latest house price trends, see our monthly House Price Index.

House price crash in London: latest news

The average price of a flat in London has fallen by more than 7% since the start of 2023, according to This is Money. However, some areas have seen much sharper falls in that period:

  • City of Westminster (areas include Marylebone, Maida Vale, Bayswater, Paddington and St John’s Wood): average prices are down 27%, Land Registry data shows.
  • Kensington and Chelsea: average prices down 20%. The average flat is now selling for less than £950,000, down from almost £1.2m in 2023.
  • Hammersmith and Fulham: average flat prices down 17%, from almost £700,000 to around £575,000. 

Plus, there’s an added risk for people who have bought a flat in the capital as a new build. Analysis by estate agent Hamptons showed that in 2025, roughly two in every five owners who had bought a new build flat in the past 20 years sold for a loss.

The hardest hit area was Hammersmith and Fulham, two-thirds of all flat owners who previously bought new properties sold at a loss last year, according to analysis of Land Registry data by Hamptons.

Looking back to 2015, buying property in London had seemed like a sound investment, with Land Registry figures showing the average London home rose by 83% from £263,000 to £482,000 between 2009 and 2015.

But since then, house prices in many parts of the capital have barely moved, and some markets now appear to be experiencing a house price crash.

As a result, many flat owners who bought in London over the past decade now expect to sell at a loss, while many house owners may not achieve much more than they paid for their home, even if they bought 10 years ago.

David Fell, lead analyst at Hamptons, says that when factoring in inflation, London flat owners are facing losses of up to 30% in real terms.

He said: “Over recent years, London flat values have mostly flatlined at best. While many owners have struggled to get back what they paid for their flat in cash terms, after taking into account inflation, real-terms losses can run at 25-30% over the past five years alone.”

“This re-assessment of value has fundamentally been driven by increases in service charges, but higher interest rates, coupled with the ending of Help to Buy, have also played a role in pushing down prices.”

London areas where house prices are booming

  • However, these figures are averages and house price drops are not affecting all of London. Speaking to the Financial Times, Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at estate agency Knight Frank, said London was a “two-speed market”, with the prime areas hit by taxes, with stamp duty being higher for more expensive properties, and “more susceptible and sensitive to political risk”.
  • By comparison, demand has been strongest in more affordable areas of London, such as the boroughs of Havering, Waltham Forest, and Lewisham, where the average house price reached an all-time high last autumn.

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Leasehold flat price drops: The wider UK picture

The issue of flats being sold for less than they were bought for is not confined to London, it’s affecting a large proportion of flat owners across the UK, data shows.

This is particularly the case for people who bought their flat as a new build, in which case they are now six times more likely to sell at a loss than those who own comparable houses, figures reported in ThisisMoney show.

Almost four in 10 new build flat sellers in England and Wales got less than they paid in 2025, according to Hamptons’ analysis of Land Registry data, which excluded those who had owned their flat for more than 20 years.

This figure increases to almost two thirds of new build flat sellers in the North East and 44% of new build flat sellers in Yorkshire and the Humber. In London, just over 40% sold at a loss.  

In contrast, the figures show just 6.3% of those selling ex-new build houses across England and Wales sold at a loss in 2025.

Table: Proportion of new build flats and houses sold at a loss in 2025, by region

RegionFlats sold for loss in 2025Houses sold for loss in 2025
London40.9%4.8%
South East35.7%5.5%
South West25.7%5.9%
Eastern34%7.5%
East Midlands35.2%7%
West Midlands41.1%5.8%
North East63.6%8.9%
North West41.6%5.7%
Yorkshire & the Humber44.5%6.5%
Wales23.3%2.8%
England & Wales38%6.3%
Source: Hamptons, Land Registry, Daily Mail.

Among older homes, almost one fifth sold at a loss in 2025, compared to 5.1% of houses, the research showed, with buyers in the North East most likely to sell at a loss at 26%.

Table: Proportion of flats and houses bought second hand that sold at a loss in 2025, by region

RegionFlats sold for loss in 2025Houses sold for loss in 2025
London18.9%3.7%
South East21.1%4.1%
South West17.7%5.4%
Eastern19.2%4.9%
East Midlands22.9%4.9%
West Midlands19.8%4.2%
North East26.4%11.3%
North West18.5%4.7%
Yorkshire & the Humber20.1%5.7%
Wales17.3%5.1%
England & Wales19.6%5.1%
Source: Hamptons, Land Registry, Daily Mail.

The issue of price falls isn’t due to owners moving every couple of years, before the property has the chance to rise in value. Hamptons reported that the average flat seller who made a loss had owned their home for almost nine years, compared to 12.5 years for someone who didn’t.

Why are flat buyers falling out of love with leasehold?

Recent data released by Nationwide Building Society suggests that homeowners strongly prefer houses over flats. 

There are a number of reasons why buyers may prefer houses to leasehold flats including:

High service charges

  • Service charges have increased by an average of 41% between 2019 and 2024, according to the Property Institute, with the average leaseholder now paying £3,634 a year. However, in some cases this figure is much higher.
  • This is likely to put off many would-be buyers who are reluctant to commit to costs they have little or no control over. Read our guide on Leasehold property: service charge problems.

Ground rent problems

  • While ground rents have now been outlawed for all new leaseholds, many still endure these costs. 
  • The amount of ground rent payable can have a significant impact on a property’s value and saleability. If the property is deemed to have onerous ground rent terms, i.e. terms that are disproportionately high or burdensome, it can severely impact the property’s resale value and ability to get a mortgage on it. Read Ground Rent Explained.

Consumer awareness

  • The Leasehold and Freehold Reform Act is now law, but is far from being implemented so it’s not yet clear when leaseholders will feel the full benefits. Amid this uncertainty, some buyers are holding off buying leasehold properties. Read our guide Leasehold Reform Latest News 2026.
  • Plus, the sector has been hit by the ongoing effects of the cladding scandal.

Increased cost of buying

  • With buying costs including stamp duty so high, many buyers are skipping buying a flat and saving for longer to buy a house they’ll live in for the longer-term.

Advice if you’re selling a leasehold flat

If you’re selling a leasehold flat, this may be uncomfortable reading but being aware of the issues means you can seek to fix any problems that may be putting off would-be buyers. Read more information in our guide Selling a leasehold property.

Also, if you’re selling a flat with a lease of 90 years or under, it’s a good idea to get a quote for extending the lease so that you have that information up front. Otherwise, you may run the risk of buyers being put off by the uncertainty of not knowing all the options and the potential costs.

Want to know what’s involved in extending your lease and how much it would cost? Speak to our lease experts for free for advice on your situation.

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What’s next for house prices in 2026

  • In terms of regional trends, Zoopla predicts Scotland and the North of England will see the biggest growth, with Motherwell, Glasgow and Paisley topping the company’s rankings for 2026.

“This report captures the north–south story well. The point isn’t that one part of England is ‘winning’ – it’s that markets move to different rhythms,” says Kevin Shaw at property service group LRG. Many northern markets haven’t been on the same roller coaster as parts of the south. Property prices often rise in a steadier way in the good years, so they tend to fall less when sentiment turns. The temperature is generally more consistent.

“By contrast, the south can overheat – and it can also catch a cold. Higher values can mean greater sensitivity to mortgage rates, affordability and confidence. That can translate into a longer adjustment period, even while demand for the right homes remains resilient.”

House price crash: Our view

Paula Higgins, CEO of the HomeOwners Alliance, says:

Paula higgins

“If people hear the phrase house price crash being bandied around it can understandably cause anxiety. For many, a house price crash means something like the 2008 global financial crisis, when UK house prices fell by around 20% between 2007 and 2009. But that isn’t what’s happening today.

“There isn’t a set definition of a house price crash but generally speaking, it means a sudden and significant drop in house prices in a particular market or region.

“According to current data, some may argue that certain markets and parts of London are undergoing a house price crash. But it’s important to understand the distinction between a house price crash that is relatively localised vs the 2008 house price crash.

“Although, that will be little comfort for people trying to sell property, especially flats, in desirable parts of London.

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