Oct 2016 House Price Watch

Oct 2016 House Price Watch indicates house prices are up on average 0.4% in the past month and up on average 5.8% in the past year


Pace of activity and house price growth continues to slow

While house prices are up on average 0.4% in the past month, the pace of house price inflation continues to slow.  The average annual change in house prices is 5.8% down from 7.2% in May.


Average annual and monthly change in house prices


Changes in house purchase prices reported by the major indices over the past month range from a high of +1.3% to a low of 0.0% (up on average 0.4% in the past month).  Rightmove, tracking asking prices, reports a rise in asking prices in September of 0.7%.


Monthly house price indices:  Land Registry (1.3% in August), Rightmove (0.7% in September), Nationwide (+0.3% in September), Halifax (0.1% in September),  LSL Property Services (0.0% in September).  See the Comparison of Indices:


Comparison of House Price Indices


UK home sales are largely unchanged between July and August (97,660) but are 6.1% lower than the same month last year (HMRC seasonally adjusted figures). Transactions have been tracking below 2015 levels since the surge in sales in March (ahead of the introduction of stamp duty changes on second homes).  See UK Residential Property Transactions for August 2016 (seasonally adjusted):


Sept 2016 UK Residential Property Transactions


The number of mortgage approvals for house purchases, a leading indicator of completed house sales, was down 1.4% between July and August. Approvals June-August are 11% lower than approvals June-August 2015. (Bank of England).


New instructions to sell fell in August keeping the supply of homes available for sale tight and putting upward pressure on house prices (RICS).


In the four quarters to Q2 2016, 139,000 new houses were completed, 38% below the projected 225,000 new households and 15% below the average rate prior to 2008 (Reported by Nationwide).


However, RICS report new buyer enquiries picked up modestly in September suggesting that buyer confidence may be returning.


Regional Summary


Land Registry August data indicates house prices are up in most regions.


The East of England is the region experiencing the greatest annual house price growth.


Prices are down in Wales and the North East.


Regional House Prices


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To see how we calculate our House Price Watch click here and to see previous reports click here